Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,624$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(686 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,250.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,250.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(27.9 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $365$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,555$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,589.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(30,589.0\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,962$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(574 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,918.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,918.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $493$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $240,136$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(6.55 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,056.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(233,056.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,716$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,676.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(33,676.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,836$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,510,151$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,383,655.0}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 61.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,383,655.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $125,539$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118,930.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(118,930.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,705,304$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $311,727$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{301,632.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.3)}}\) (asimptote \(301,632.6\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,598$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,393.4}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41,393.4\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $266,765$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,137$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,806.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.0)}}\) (asimptote \(87,806.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,280$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(829 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,097.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,097.7\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,857$ on 2020-06-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $194,458$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(5.77 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,259.8}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(182,259.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,968$ on 2020-06-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,665.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,665.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,972$ on 2020-06-27