Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,624$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(686 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,250.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,250.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(27.9 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $365$ on 2020-06-27

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,555$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,589.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(30,589.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,962$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(574 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,918.3}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,918.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $493$ on 2020-06-27

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $240,136$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(6.55 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,056.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(233,056.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,716$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,676.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(33,676.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,836$ on 2020-06-27

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,510,151$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,383,655.0}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 61.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,383,655.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $125,539$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118,930.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(118,930.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,705,304$ on 2020-06-27

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $311,727$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{301,632.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.3)}}\) (asimptote \(301,632.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,598$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,393.4}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41,393.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $266,765$ on 2020-06-27

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,137$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,806.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.0)}}\) (asimptote \(87,806.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,280$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(829 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,097.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,097.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,857$ on 2020-06-27

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $194,458$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(5.77 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,259.8}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(182,259.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,968$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.38 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,665.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,665.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,972$ on 2020-06-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

San Marino recovered 100%
Chad recovered 97%
Cuba recovered 93%
Malaysia recovered 93%
Malta recovered 93%
Estonia recovered 92%
Djibouti recovered 90%
Italy recovered 84%
Uganda recovered 84%
Lithuania recovered 78%
Turkey recovered 73%
Singapore recovered 71%
Sri Lanka recovered 60%
Hungary recovered 57%
Qatar recovered 54%
Belarus recovered 35%
United Arab Emirates recovered 35%
Tajikistan recovered 28%
Canada recovered 20%
Sierra Leone recovered 19%
Iran recovered 16%
Poland recovered 15%

San Marino⮸

Population $33,931$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $698$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(187 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{697.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(697.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(19.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 24.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-06-27

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $865$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(164 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{864.8}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(864.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(29.1 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71.5}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 14.8)}}\) (asimptote \(71.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-27

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,330$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(614 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,200.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,200.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $86$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(28.6 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(83.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57$ on 2020-06-27

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,616$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,217.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,217.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(58.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 17.8)}}\) (asimptote \(116.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $187$ on 2020-06-27